COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE UKRAINIAN BANKING SYSTEM CURRENCY RISKS BEFORE AND DURING THE MARITAL STATE

Abstract

Introduction. The stability of the Ukrainian banking system is the main guarantee of the stability of the entire state economy. Therefore, during external shocks and military-political instability, the risks to which the Ukrainian banking system is exposed, as well as management decisions regarding their minimization, must be clearly defined and outlined. The purpose of the article is to determine the essence of currency risk, factors affecting the currency risk of the Ukrainian banking system, conducting a comparative analysis of the currency risks of the Ukrainian banking system before and during the introduction of martial state. Methods. In the conditions of war, methods of analyzing the risks of the banking system should be carried out more deeply, covering a wide range of constantly changing factors - from psychological and behavioral (panic moods of the population, expectations and publications in the mass media, the degree of trust in the banking system), graphic, statistical, historical to military political and foreign economic (military-political decisions, the situation on the battlefield, financial assistance from Western partners). Results. The risks of the official exchange rate fixing in the long-term lead to economic imbalances, reduce the competitiveness of domestic producers, the problem of multiple exchange rates in the cash and interbank market segments and the artificial strengthening of the hryvnia despite the change in the structural characteristics of the economy are also relevant. The reason for realizing the risk of a shortage of cash currency was the logistical difficulties of delivering foreign currency cash from abroad when the demand for the currency clearly exceeded its supply. The increase in the short currency position of banks indicates an increase in the ratio of the excess of the amount of liabilities in foreign currency and bank metals over the amount of claims in the hryvnia equivalent to the regulatory capital of the bank. Currency restrictions on cash and non-cash transactions with currency are another risk, because it reduces the ability to plan and forecast currency activity. Conclusion. The analysis of currency risks proves that all currency risks of the Ukrainian banking system are interconnected and are derivatives of each other. The measures related to the fixing of the exchange rate and currency restrictions were fully justified and compensated for currency risks that could cause significant damage to monetary and financial stability. Reducing the sensitivity of the foreign exchange market to situational factors and reducing security risks will allow the NBU to gradually return to floating exchange rate formation and the regime of currency liberalization. The future accession of Ukraine to the European Union and to the euro zone should significantly minimize currency risks.