FINANCING HIGHER EDUCATION: DELAYED IMPACT ON HUMAN CAPITAL

Abstract

Introduction. The paper raises the problem of identifying the prolonged effect of financing higher education in the context of human capital formation, which is manifested not in short-term educational indicators, but in the long term - through changes in productive characteristics, innovation potential and social mobility of the population. The emphasis is placed on the structural complexity and temporal inertia of causal relationships, which complicates the empirical evaluation of the effectiveness of educational policies and the justification of public investment decisions. The purpose of the study is to conceptualize the mechanisms of the prolonged impact of higher education funding on human capital parameters, to formalize the temporal logic of these relationships, and to create a theoretical and analytical framework for building a tool for quantifying the delayed educational effect. The methodological design of the study is based on a combination of a systematic approach, logical and structural analysis, tools for dynamic modeling with lags (distributed lag models), regression panel analysis and simulation forecasting of long-term socio-economic effects of investment in education. The methods of decomposition of the components of the mechanisms of human capital formation through the educational environment, cognitive level and regional integration are applied. Results. It is found that financial support for higher education has a complex and multi-stage impact that cannot be reduced to a linear cost-benefit relationship. The analytical concept of structural remoteness is proposed, which takes into account the time prolongation of effects, institutional inertia of educational systems, as well as the indirect nature of the formation of individual educational potential. A multi-level logical and functional model of the relationships between investment volumes, mechanisms of educational implementation and socio-economic results that appear in the lag period of 3-7 years is developed. Conclusion. As a result, the necessity of transition to a new model of strategic planning in the field of higher education is substantiated, in which funding will be considered not as a budgetary expenditure, but as a long-term investment with a delayed effect. Indicative directions for the formation of a state system for monitoring the long-term effectiveness of educational investments and recommendations for the institutionalization of models for forecasting the effectiveness of higher education financing in the regional dimension are proposed.