TRADE WARS: CONCEPTUAL APPROACHES AND FORMALIZATION OF EMERGENCE MECHANISMS

Abstract

Introduction. The article examines conceptual approaches to defining the essence of trade wars as a form of international economic conflict. The existing definitions of trade war, trade conflict, and trade dispute as forms of international economic confrontations of varying intensity are analyzed. Purpose. Particular attention is paid to the classical definition by J. Conybeare, which encompasses instruments, processes, and motivations of trade confrontation participants, as well as to the behavioral approach by G. Grossman and E. Helpman, which focuses on the internal political mechanisms of trade policy formation. Results. The socio-economic nature of trade wars is revealed as a complex phenomenon rooted in conflicts of interest regarding the structure of international trade, the distribution of globalization benefits, and control over strategic sectors. Trade wars are shown to serve as instruments for revising the balance of power and institutional arrangements in international trade. The article proposes a mathematical formalization of trade war emergence mechanisms based on an adapted model by G. Grossman and E. Helpman. The government's political benefit function is presented, which illustrates that governments balance between satisfying the interests of organized lobby groups and accounting for general voter welfare. The world market equilibrium condition is analyzed, reflecting the fundamental interdependence of trading partners and explaining the escalation mechanism of trade wars. The conditions for transition from unilateral actions to coordinated interaction between states in international trade are identified. The distinction between the regime of unilateral actions (trade war) and the regime of coordinated interaction (trade negotiations) indicates the key condition for conflict de-escalation: both parties' recognition that mutual concessions ensure a higher level of political benefit realization than continuing unilateral actions. Conclusion. The need for further research is substantiated in terms of empirical verification of the theoretical models considered using examples of contemporary trade conflicts, as well as the development of methodological approaches to quantitative assessment of model parameters for forecasting the development of trade wars.