MODELS FOR INCREASING INVESTMENT SUSTAINABILITY OF LOGISTICS OF THE GRAIN MARKET OF UKRAINE IN CRISIS CONDITIONS

Abstract

Introduction. The logistics system of the grain market is a key element of Ukraine’s agri-food economy, ensuring export capacity and integration into global markets. Military aggression, restrictions on Black Sea ports, reorientation of cargo flows, and a sharp increase in logistics costs have significantly weakened the investment sustainability of grain logistics. Growing uncertainty, infrastructural losses, and dependence on alternative transport routes have intensified investment risks and limited the long-term efficiency of logistics systems. Under these conditions, the development of models for strengthening the investment sustainability of grain market logistics becomes particularly relevant, while existing approaches remain fragmented and poorly adapted to crisis realities. The purpose of the article is to substantiate theoretical aspects and develop models for increasing the investment sustainability of the logistics of the grain market of Ukraine in times of crisis. Methods. The research is based on a systemic approach and applies general scientific and economic methods, including analysis and synthesis, structural analysis, scenario modeling, and risk-oriented assessment. Statistical data on grain production, exports, logistics costs, and infrastructure capacity were used to identify key constraints. Conceptual and simulation modeling supported the development of scenario-based, risk-oriented, and DSS models for investment decision-making in grain logistics. Results. The study defines investment sustainability of logistics as the capacity to maintain operational efficiency, adaptability, and investment effectiveness under crisis conditions. Analysis of the grain logistics infrastructure reveals key risks related to military threats, infrastructural constraints, rising transport costs, and limited processing capacity. Three interrelated models are proposed: a scenario-based model for adapting logistics flows, a risk-oriented model for managing logistics and investment risks, and a DSS-based model integrating simulation tools and investment efficiency indicators. Their application reduces investment uncertainty, improves resource allocation, and enhances the resilience of logistics systems. Conclusion. The research proves that strengthening the investment sustainability of grain market logistics requires an integrated approach combining infrastructural adaptation, risk management, and digital decision-support tools. The proposed models create a methodological framework for improving predictability of investment cycles, reducing losses caused by logistics disruptions, and forming long-term investment potential of the grain sector. Further research should focus on developing quantitative indicators for assessing investment sustainability and evaluating the impact of digitalization and processing cluster development on logistics resilience.