TAX POLICY FOR UKRAINE’S POST-WAR RECOVERY IN THE CONTEXT OF STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC MODERNIZATION
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/2786-8273/2026-14-10Keywords:
tax policy, post-war recovery, structural modernisation, Ukraine, entrepreneurship, manufacturing, defence industry, R&D, investment incentives, local financeAbstract
Introduction. Ukraine’s post-war recovery requires a tax policy that can preserve fiscal sustainability and redirect private capital toward productive modernization. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to substantiate a model of tax policy for Ukraine’s post-war recovery that combines revenue stability with targeted incentives for structural economic transformation. Methods. The research uses comparative historical analysis, institutional analysis, systematization of international statistical evidence, policy design logic and scenario-based assessment of tax instruments. Results. The article compares the post-war tax and fiscal practices of West Germany, Japan, Finland, South Korea, Estonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Israel. The analysis shows that effective recovery policy relies on fiscal space, local fiscal capacity, investment discipline, reinvestment of profits, conditional export incentives, defence-oriented research and innovation ecosystems, and transparent administration. The article distinguishes between instruments already functioning in Ukraine, partially implemented regimes and new targeted solutions. Existing and partially implemented elements include accelerated depreciation, industrial park incentives, the Defence City regime, electronic VAT refund procedures, compensation programmes for internally displaced persons and veterans, and tax treatment of selected training expenses. The proposed package for 2026–2035 includes a reinvestment tax credit for manufacturing SMEs, a carry-forward R&D tax credit, tax recognition of demining expenses, incentives for energy autonomy, local tax incentives for recovery communities and a targeted levy on crisis rents. Conclusion. Tax support for recovery should be temporary, transparent, digitally verifiable and linked to measurable results. Such results include productive investment, equipment commissioning, employment, exports, R&D, localization, energy resilience, demining and the expansion of the future tax base. The proposed architecture transforms tax incentives from fiscal concessions into a structured contract between the state and business.
References
Albers T. N. H., Bartels C., Schularick M. The Distribution of Wealth in Germany, 1895–2018. ECONtribute Policy Brief. 2020. URL: https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_001_2020.pdf
Broude M., Deger S., Sen S. Defence, Innovation and Development: The Case of Israel. Journal of Innovation Economics & Management. 2013. No. 12(2). P. 37–57. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3917/jie.012.0037
Brownlee W. E., Ide E., Fukagai Y. (eds.). The Political Economy of Transnational Tax Reform: The Shoup Mission to Japan in Historical Context. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139519427
Galofré-Vilà G., Meissner C. M., McKee M., Stuckler D. The Economic Consequences of the 1953 London Debt Agreement. European Review of Economic History. 2019. Vol. 23, No. 1. P. 1–29. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/hey010
Hurochkina V., Kęsy M. Sanctions Tax Policy of Countries in the Management of System of Strengthening International Economic Security in Central Europe. Środkowoeuropejskie Studia Polityczne. 2025. No. 2. P. 373–397. DOI: https://doi.org/10.14746/ssp.2025.2.19
Hurochkina V., Nikytenko D., Kulyk P., Yanovska V., Habrylevych O. Global Recycling Benchmarks: Lessons from Germany, Korea, Japan for Eastern Europe. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 2025. Vol. 1576. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1576/1/012012
IMF. Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2006 Article IV Consultation. IMF Country Report No. 06/371. Washington, DC: IMF, 2006. URL: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/cr06371.pdf
Kaizuka K. The Shoup Tax System and the Postwar Development of the Japanese Economy. CIRJE Discussion Paper. University of Tokyo, 1991. URL: https://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/91/f20/dp.pdf
Masso J., Meriküll J., Vahter P. Gross Profit Taxation Versus Distributed Profit Taxation and Firm Performance: Effects of Estonia’s Corporate Income Tax Reform. University of Tartu Working Paper Series. 2011. No. 81. URL: https://ideas.repec.org/p/mtk/febawb/81.html
Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. Ukraine’s State Budget 2025. Kyiv, 2024. URL: https://mof.gov.ua/storage/files/Ukraine%20State%20Budget%202025.pdf
Mitrunen M. War Reparations, Structural Change, and Intergenerational Mobility. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2025. Vol. 140, No. 1. P. 521–584. URL: https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/140/1/521/7849762
OECD. Enhancing Resilience by Boosting Digital Business Transformation in Ukraine. Paris: OECD Publishing, 2024. URL: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/enhancing-resilience-by-boosting-digital-business-transformation-in-ukraine_4b13b0bb-en.html
OECD. The Marshall Plan. Paris: OECD Publishing, 2008. URL: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2008/09/the-marshall-plan_g1gh8e35/9789264044258-en.pdf
Peled D. Defense R&D and Economic Growth in Israel: A Research Agenda. Samuel Neaman Institute Working Paper STE-WP-4. 2001. URL: https://www.neaman.org.il/en/defense-rd-economic-growth-israel-research-agenda-ste-wp-4/
SIPRI. Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2025. Fact Sheet. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2026. URL: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/2604_milex_2025.pdf
Tzifakis N., Tsardanidis C. Economic Reconstruction of Bosnia and Herzegovina: The Lost Decade. Ethnopolitics. 2006. Vol. 5, No. 1. P. 67–84. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17449050600576316
World Bank. Korea’s Experience with Export-Led Industrial Development. Washington, DC: World Bank. URL: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/346251468739299894/pdf/Koreas-exerience-with-export-led-industrial-development.pdf
World Bank Group, European Commission, United Nations, Government of Ukraine. Updated Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment (RDNA4). 2025. URL: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/02/25/updated-ukraine-recovery-and-reconstruction-needs-assessment-released
World Bank Group, European Commission, United Nations, Government of Ukraine. Ukraine Fifth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5): February 2022 – December 2025. 2026. URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/c52d910e-e4f9-4bcd-9257-6867bdd89dd4
Yoo J. H. Korea’s Rapid Export Expansion in the 1960s: How It Began. KDI Journal of Economic Policy. 2017. Vol. 39, No. 2. P. 1–23. DOI: https://doi.org/10.23895/KDIJEP.2017.39.2.1
Державна податкова служба України. До уваги платників податку на прибуток підприємств: прискорена амортизація основних засобів. 2025. URL: https://dp.tax.gov.ua/media-ark/news-ark/967072.html
Державна податкова служба України. Бюджетне відшкодування ПДВ: що потрібно знати. 2025. URL: https://wvp.tax.gov.ua/media-ark/news-ark/938081.html
Закон України № 4577-IX. Про внесення змін до Податкового кодексу України та інших законів України щодо спеціального правового режиму Дефенс Сіті. URL: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/go/4577-20
Міністерство економіки України. Економічні стимули для резидентів індустріальних парків. URL: https://new.me.gov.ua/Documents/Detail/d41808bf-f83f-4426-8dce-b80ccfd66f21
Державна податкова служба України. З 1 січня 2026 року змінилися правила оподаткування банків. 2026. URL: https://tax.gov.ua/media-tsentr/novini/971195.html
Міністерство економіки України. Понад 3000 підприємців отримали компенсацію за працевлаштування 5500 ВПО з початку 2025 року. 2025. URL: https://me.gov.ua/News/Detail?id=fed7f9bd-d4ba-48c1-acb9-f39b85375846
Міністерство економіки України. Робота без бар’єрів: підсумки 2025 року. 2025. URL: https://me.gov.ua/News/Detail/a064b7fa-dc4e-46da-b433-d939986947d9
Державна податкова служба України. Оподаткування коштів, сплачених роботодавцем за навчання працівника. 2026. URL: https://od.tax.gov.ua/media-ark/news-ark/971428.html
Albers, T. N. H., Bartels, C., & Schularick, M. (2020). The distribution of wealth in Germany, 1895–2018. ECONtribute Policy Brief. Available at: https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_001_2020.pdf
Broude, M., Deger, S., & Sen, S. (2013). Defence, innovation and development: The case of Israel. Journal of Innovation Economics & Management, 12(2), 37–57. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3917/jie.012.0037 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3917/jie.012.0037
Brownlee, W. E., Ide, E., & Fukagai, Y. (Eds.). (2013). The political economy of transnational tax reform: The Shoup Mission to Japan in historical context. Cambridge University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139519427 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139519427
Galofré-Vilà, G., Meissner, C. M., McKee, M., & Stuckler, D. (2019). The economic consequences of the 1953 London Debt Agreement. European Review of Economic History, 23(1), 1–29. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/hey010 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/hey010
Hurochkina, V., & Kęsy, M. (2025). Sanctions tax policy of countries in the management of system of strengthening international economic security in Central Europe. Środkowoeuropejskie Studia Polityczne, 2, 373–397. DOI: https://doi.org/10.14746/ssp.2025.2.19 DOI: https://doi.org/10.14746/ssp.2025.2.19
Hurochkina, V., Nikytenko, D., Kulyk, P., Yanovska, V., & Habrylevych, O. (2025). Global recycling benchmarks: Lessons from Germany, Korea, Japan for Eastern Europe. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1576. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1576/1/012012 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1576/1/012012
International Monetary Fund. (2006). Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2006 Article IV consultation. IMF Country Report No. 06/371. Available at: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/cr06371.pdf DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451804911.002
Kaizuka, K. (1991). The Shoup tax system and the postwar development of the Japanese economy. CIRJE Discussion Paper. University of Tokyo. Available at: https://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/91/f20/dp.pdf
Masso, J., Meriküll, J., & Vahter, P. (2011). Gross profit taxation versus distributed profit taxation and firm performance: Effects of Estonia’s corporate income tax reform. University of Tartu Working Paper Series, 81. Available at: https://ideas.repec.org/p/mtk/febawb/81.html DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1793143
Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. (2024). Ukraine’s State Budget 2025. Available at: https://mof.gov.ua/storage/files/Ukraine%20State%20Budget%202025.pdf
Mitrunen, M. (2025). War reparations, structural change, and intergenerational mobility. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 140(1), 521–584. Available at: https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/140/1/521/7849762 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjae036
OECD. (2024). Enhancing resilience by boosting digital business transformation in Ukraine. OECD Publishing. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/enhancing-resilience-by-boosting-digital-business-transformation-in-ukraine_4b13b0bb-en.html DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/4b13b0bb-en
OECD. (2008). The Marshall Plan. OECD Publishing. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2008/09/the-marshall-plan_g1gh8e35/9789264044258-en.pdf DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264044258-en
Peled, D. (2001). Defense R&D and economic growth in Israel: A research agenda. Samuel Neaman Institute Working Paper STE-WP-4. Available at: https://www.neaman.org.il/en/defense-rd-economic-growth-israel-research-agenda-ste-wp-4/
SIPRI. (2026). Trends in world military expenditure, 2025. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Available at: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/2604_milex_2025.pdf
Tzifakis, N., & Tsardanidis, C. (2006). Economic reconstruction of Bosnia and Herzegovina: The lost decade. Ethnopolitics, 5(1), 67–84. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17449050600576316 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17449050600576316
World Bank. (n.d.). Korea’s experience with export-led industrial development. Available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/346251468739299894/pdf/Koreas-exerience-with-export-led-industrial-development.pdf
World Bank Group, European Commission, United Nations, & Government of Ukraine. (2025). Updated Ukraine recovery and reconstruction needs assessment (RDNA4). Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/02/25/updated-ukraine-recovery-and-reconstruction-needs-assessment-released
World Bank Group, European Commission, United Nations, & Government of Ukraine. (2026). Ukraine fifth rapid damage and needs assessment (RDNA5): February 2022 – December 2025. Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/c52d910e-e4f9-4bcd-9257-6867bdd89dd4
Yoo, J. H. (2017). Korea’s rapid export expansion in the 1960s: How it began. KDI Journal of Economic Policy, 39(2), 1–23. DOI: https://doi.org/10.23895/KDIJEP.2017.39.2.1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2017.39.2.1
Derzhavna podatkova sluzhba Ukrainy. (2025). Do uvahy platnykiv podatku na prybutok pidpryiemstv: pryskorena amortyzatsiia osnovnykh zasobiv. Available at: https://dp.tax.gov.ua/media-ark/news-ark/967072.html
Derzhavna podatkova sluzhba Ukrainy. (2025). Biudzhetne vidshkoduvannia PDV: shcho potribno znaty. Available at: https://wvp.tax.gov.ua/media-ark/news-ark/938081.html
Zakon Ukrainy No. 4577-IX. Pro vnesennia zmin do Podatkovoho kodeksu Ukrainy ta inshykh zakoniv Ukrainy shchodo spetsialnoho pravovoho rezhymu Defens Siti. Available at: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/go/4577-20
Ministerstvo ekonomiky Ukrainy. (n.d.). Ekonomichni stymuly dlia rezydentiv industrialnykh parkiv. Available at: https://new.me.gov.ua/Documents/Detail/d41808bf-f83f-4426-8dce-b80ccfd66f21
State Tax Service of Ukraine. (2026). Z 1 sichnia 2026 roku zminylysia pravyla opodatkuvannia prybutku bankiv. Available at: https://tax.gov.ua/media-tsentr/novini/971195.html [in Ukrainian].
Ministerstvo ekonomiky Ukrainy. (2025). Ponad 3000 pidpryiemtsiv otrymaly kompensatsiiu za pratsevlashtuvannia 5500 VPO z pochatku 2025 roku. Available at: https://me.gov.ua/News/Detail?id=fed7f9bd-d4ba-48c1-acb9-f39b85375846
Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine. (2025). “Robota bez barieriv”: pidsumky 2025 roku ta instrumenty pidtrymky pratsevlashtuvannia. Available at: https://me.gov.ua/News/Detail/a064b7fa-dc4e-46da-b433-d939986947d9 [in Ukrainian].
State Tax Service of Ukraine. (2026). Opodatkovuvannia koshtiv, splachenykh robotodavtsem za navchannia abo uchast pratsivnyka u seminarakh ta konferentsiiakh. Available at: https://od.tax.gov.ua/media-ark/news-ark/971428.html [in Ukrainian].
