MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE STATE'S FISCAL POLICY IN WARTIME

Abstract

Introduction. The study emphasizes that the relevance of analyzing fiscal policy in wartime is due to the need to assess its effectiveness in ensuring financial stability, supporting the economy and social sector, prioritizing budget expenditures, and identifying funding sources under increased risks and limited resources. Purpose. The purpose of the research is to study practical approaches to fiscal policy implementation, identify problems in public finance management during wartime, and justify directions for optimizing budgetary and tax decisions to ensure macroeconomic stability and economic recovery. Methods. Analysis and synthesis to study the essence and types of fiscal policy, as well as comparative and cause-effect analysis to reveal its specific features are used in the article. Economic-statistical methods were applied to examine budget revenues and expenditures, deficit dynamics, and public debt structure. Trend analysis was used to study changes in Ukraine's external debt during pre-war and wartime periods. Results. The paper highlights the importance of studying both internal and external public debt. The research also explores practical instruments used in the implementation of state strategies, including government borrowing, OVDPs, and international financial assistance. Analysis shows a sharp increase in government expenditures on defense, social protection, and infrastructure restoration, exceeding revenue growth and leading to significant budget deficits. The study emphasizes that the dominance of guaranteed public debt highlights the state's fiscal role, while non-guaranteed private debt remains stable or declining due to reduced investment activity and elevated economic risks. Conclusion. The study concludes that Ukraine's fiscal policy during wartime has undergone significant transformations, characterized by increased military and social expenditures, stronger budgetary regulation, and growing dependence on external financing. Optimization of budgetary and tax decisions should focus on prioritizing expenditures for defense, infrastructure restoration, and social support. Balanced use of domestic and international borrowing is necessary to avoid excessive financial pressure. Effective fiscal policy is crucial for ensuring the resilience and recovery of Ukraine's economy under wartime conditions.