COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF MACROECONOMIC THREATS TO UKRAINE’S ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE CONTEXT OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/2617-5940.1.2024.6Keywords:
economic security, economic growth, index, macroeconomic threats, real GDPAbstract
The Russian-Ukrainian war has not only disrupted Ukraine’s territorial integrity and stability, but also significantly affects the macroeconomic landscape, creating serious threats to economic security and leading to significant economic losses. Purpose. The aim of the study is to statistically assess the impact of macroeconomic threats to Ukraine’s economic security on its real economic development in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Research methods/Methodology. The article uses such research methods as empirical, retrospective, comparative, graphical, regression and statistical analysis. Finding. The study found that macroeconomic threats to economic security during the Russian-Ukrainian war have significantly aggravated and negatively affected the state of the national economy of Ukraine, especially during the full-scale invasion, which caused an unprecedented annual economic decline of 28.8% of real GDP. The article proposes a periodisation of the dynamics of the physical GDP index (which can be considered an indicator of the dynamics of real GDP) during 1991-2023, within which four main periods are allocated: stagnation of the transition period from an administrative-command to a market economy (1991–1999); economic growth during the market transformation of the national economy of Ukraine (2000–2008); the Great Recession and post-recession slowdown (2009–2013); the Russian-Ukrainian war and the coronavirus crisis (2014–2023). The author substantiates and proves the statistical significance of the impact of macroeconomic threats to economic security on the index of physical GDP, in particular, an increase in the unemployment rate (according to the ILO methodology) with a GDP elasticity of –3.6%; a slowdown in economic growth compared to developing countries with a GDP elasticity of +1%; and an increase in the consumer price index with a GDP elasticity of –0.7%. Originality/Value. The value of the study lies in the fact that a universal algorithm for statistical assessment of threats to economic security to the development of the national economy has been proposed, which can be used for any functional component of national security. The author’s prospects for further research are to assess the impact of production, investment and innovation, demographic, energy, food, social and financial threats to economic security on Ukraine’s economic development under martial law.
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