APPROACHES TO THE ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MILITARY CONFLICTS ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROCESSES

Abstract

The article examines approaches to the analysis of the impact of military conflicts on socio-economic processes in the country. Local armed conflicts and civil wars of the modern period have different specifics, tactics and intensity, which accordingly affects their economic consequences. Modern world trends dictate the conditions under which it is necessary to take into account the multitude of threats and constituent components of conflicts, which require an objective analysis of alternative models and algorithms for solving the problems of analyzing the impact of military conflicts on socio-economic processes, opportunities for constructing forecast values of economic indicators. Analyzing the multifaceted consequences of the war in Ukraine, we can identify the following aspects: an increase in commodity prices and inflationary pressure, disruptions in trade and supply chains between neighboring countries, and a decrease in business and investor confidence. The main economic indicators for measuring the impact of military conflicts on socio-economic processes: gross domestic product, number of refugees, national currency, Export/Import. The study analyzed the existing economic and mathematical methods and proposed the use of linear and nonlinear regression algorithms, Bayesian networks, neural networks and machine learning for the analysis of the impact of military conflicts on socio-economic processes. The use of the proposed mathematical methods makes it possible to build a model for predicting the impact of military conflicts on socio-economic indicators of development. The paper determined that, according to correlation indicators, the indicator of the gross domestic product depends most on industry, the influence of past and present flows of refugees on the future growth of this indicator was investigated based on the ARMA model.