ECONOMIC AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WINE INDUSTRY OF UKRAINE

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to provide a statistical assessment of the factors determining the revenue from wine production in Ukraine and to identify regional features of wineries’ performance. The research aims to quantitatively substantiate the regularities of the industry’s development, determine the impact of production, economic, and physicochemical indicators on financial results, and formulate recommendations for regional wine industry support policies. Research methods. The empirical base was formed using open data on 38 wineries from seven regions of Ukraine. A combination of regression, structural, and variance (ANOVA) analysis was applied. The linear model was constructed using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, with verification of multicollinearity (VIF), residual normality (Shapiro–Wilk test), and autocorrelation (Durbin–Watson test). Structural analysis made it possible to assess regional proportions and average indicators, while variance analysis identified statistically significant differences among regions and grape varieties. Results. The regression model of revenue (R=0.991; R²=0.982; p<0.001) confirmed a linear dependence between financial performance and production characteristics. The most significant factor was the number of employees (p<0.05), indicating the key role of labor resources in revenue generation. A strong negative correlation was found between alcohol content and acidity (r=–0.885; p<0.001). The ANOVA test revealed statistically significant interregional differences in revenues (p=0.0063) and a substantial influence of grape variety on alcohol content (p=0.000025). The Ukrainian wine market is characterized by the dominance of small producers and the prevalence of dry white wines, aligning with European trends. Originality of the study. The novelty lies in applying an integrated statistical approach – combining regression, structural, and variance analyses – to quantitatively assess the efficiency of the Ukrainian wine industry. The practical value of the results lies in the possibility of using the proposed models for forecasting revenues, optimizing resource allocation, and shaping regional development strategies for the national wine sector.