EXPORT OF UKRAINIAN GRAIN UNDER ARMED AGGRESSION BY THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: DYNAMICS, MARKET CONCENTRATION, AND GLOBAL CHALLENGES

Abstract

The article focuses on analyzing the dynamics of the export potential of Ukrainian grain under the conditions of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, as well as the influencing factors. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to assess the export of Ukrainian grain amid global challenges, examine the level of market concentration, and develop proposals for maintaining the competitive positions of Ukrainian exporters in the global environment. Research methods. To comprehensively achieve this goal, the following research methods were used: analysis and synthesis, systematization and generalization, comparative analysis, index method, tabular and graphical methods, and content analysis. Finding. It has been proven that despite a range of global challenges, Ukraine remains one of the world’s leading grain exporters and plays a crucial role in ensuring global food security. Key importers of Ukrainian grain over recent years have been identified, and a ranking of countries by their import volumes of Ukrainian grain is presented. Special attention is given to identifying the market structure, analyzing the dynamics of concentration among major grain traders during wartime challenges, and providing a brief overview of these actors. It is confirmed that the Ukrainian grain sector is integrated into global supply chains. The article argues that the Ukrainian grain export market is characterized by low concentration. Value. The need to monitor concentration levels in the grain export market is substantiated, especially in light of certain exporters gradually increasing their market shares over the past three years. A SWOT analysis of Ukrainian grain exporters on the global market under new challenges has been conducted. The feasibility of implementing a market expansion strategy by Ukrainian exporters—particularly through the development of new markets, including via the international humanitarian initiative “Grain from Ukraine” – is substantiated. The study concludes that for the effective functioning of Ukraine’s grain sector under conditions of full-scale war and for enhancing its export potential, it is necessary to improve business processes across the entire chain: production-processing-storage-export.